The ABC Floral Shop from problem 3 is considering fitting various forecasting models on the first seven days of demand and using the second seven days as a hold-out sample for comparing the prediction accuracy of the models. They have decided to use α = .25, but aren’t sure what starting value of forecast, F1, to use. a. Try values of F1 = 160, F2 = 170, and F3 = 180 to determine the best exponential model for the first seven days using the minimum total absolute deviation as the criterion. You may modify the spreadsheet from for the calculations. b. Compare the best model from part a to a three-period moving average model on the second set of data. Which one has the smallest sum of absolute errors? c. What principles does this problem illustrate?
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